RE: Reform Is Not a Gamble, It’s Nigeria’s Path to Redemption
Reform Is Not a Gamble — It’s Nigeria’s Path to Redemption
Reply to an article by Dr. Bolaji Akinyemi, titled Cardoso Gamble
By Adeniran Taiwo Olugbenga
Cardoso Gamble: A Failing Bet on the Brazilian Model,” spins a narrative that is not only theatrical but perilously deceptive. While constructive criticism fuels democracy, it becomes a betrayal when it cherry-picks suffering without honoring purpose, magnifies hardship while silencing context, and exploits raw emotion without offering credible solutions.
To brand the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts under Governor Yemi Cardoso as a “gamble” with Nigeria’s economy is not just hyperbolic—it’s reckless.
Let’s be unequivocal: Nigeria’s current economic trajectory is no wager. It is a deliberate, overdue correction of a nation battered by years of fiscal recklessness, entrenched elite sabotage, and policy cowardice.
If there was ever a gamble, it was the era of printing money to paper over deficits, propping up an artificial naira while stoking import dependency, and clinging to subsidies that enriched cartels while impoverishing the masses.
The author’s attempt to draw parallels between Nigeria’s reforms and Brazil’s historical economic experiments may sound erudite, but it collapses under scrutiny. Nigeria is not Brazil. No nation’s path to progress mirrors another’s precisely, and no country has ever transformed without enduring the initial turbulence of systemic overhaul. Reform in fractured systems always sparks friction—it’s the price of progress.
It is disingenuous to spotlight the struggles of a market woman or a transport worker without confronting why their pain has become unavoidable. This hardship is not a random affliction; it is the bitter harvest of decades of unsustainable policies, rampant corruption, institutional rot, and leadership inertia. Had Nigeria persisted in its denial, the collapse would still have come—only swifter, deeper, and irreparable.
The naira’s float, subsidy removal, and interest rate hikes were not policy indulgences—they were survival imperatives. These measures were crafted to halt the naira’s freefall, restore investor trust, and rebuild Nigeria’s fiscal credibility. To dismiss them as reckless experimentation betrays an analytical myopia unworthy of serious national discourse.
Yes, Nigerians are hurting. Their pain is undeniable. But the article conveniently sidesteps a crucial truth: this suffering is not new—it was merely veiled by subsidies, manipulated exchange rates, and political sleight-of-hand. What Nigerians need now is not a retreat into the seductive mirage of failed populism but clarity, resilience, and confidence that today’s sacrifices pave the way for a stronger tomorrow.
Let’s talk solutions, since the article shirked that responsibility.
Reforms must be cushioned by robust safety nets—targeted cash transfers, accessible credit for small businesses, fortified food security programs, and incentives for local production. But to demand that these reforms be abandoned or branded failures before they bear fruit is not only economically irresponsible—it’s dangerously inflammatory.
We must also resist the temptation to fetishize public outrage while ignoring the reality that structural transformation demands time. No nation has ever rebuilt its economy without weathering short-term storms. The question is not whether the path is arduous but whether it leads to self-reliance, fiscal stability, and national prosperity.
On these fronts, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the CBN under Governor Cardoso are confronting Nigeria’s hard truths with uncommon courage.
Nigeria’s economy does not need armchair cynics decrying every reform as a flop mere months into their rollout. It needs rigorous engagement, policy patience, and a public discerning enough to distinguish between wanton destruction and essential disruption.
We are not gambling. We are rebuilding. The sooner we cease undermining progress with premature condemnation, the greater our chance to forge a Nigeria that thrives on sound policy rather than sentiment.
History will not celebrate those who shouted loudest in protest. It will honor those who held fast to the course when the stakes were highest.
